A webinar led by Lieutenant General (Retd) Richard Nugee CB CVO CBE
16th November 2023
This Livery Climate Action Group event was introduced by the Chair, Alderman Alison Gowman and then facilitated by Brigadier Philip Napier OBE, Clerk of the Saddlers’ Company. It was led by Lt Gen Richard Nugee who had produced a report “Ministry of Defence Climate Change and Sustainability Strategic Approach” in 2021. All 111 Livery Companies have links to the military.
Richard explained the context of the report and view on the topic. Climate change does not change the luck and risk inherent in warfare but the environment is changing: floods, droughts, sea level rise, storms, reduced water levels in waterways such as the Rhine, and less snow for skiing. Resources are scarce so the rise in population will lead to tension and conflict over land and resources. All countries in the Sahel south of the Sahara are now in conflict.
War puts more carbon into the atmosphere, which damages the environment. Fighting a war has a higher priority than climate change. In 2023 there has been conflict in Ukraine and Gaza. Niger had the first coup in response to climate change. World War II was fought over access to oil for shipping and tanks. Now there is potential conflict over access to minerals including rare earths. Some countries depend on exports of oil. Saudi Arabia is trying to expand into new sources of income but for others, such as Nigeria, oil production is 80% of GDP with no plan to diversify.
The military need to be involved.
Access to energy has been weaponised as shown by the damage to three of four North Stream gas pipelines in the Baltic. Scarcity of resources can lead to terrorism.
Drying up of Lake Chad reduces access to water, which extremists / non state actors take advantage.
In Afghanistan the Taliban focused on farmers who could not make a living out of farming but would support the Taliban for five dollars a day.
CHANGES IN THE PHYSICAL WORLD
The Arctic is melting, which is a concern. Russia has declared the Arctic Sea to be an inland waterway. China says it’s a near Arctic country. Shipping from northern Europe to Asia may avoid the Suez Canal by going via the Arctic, which is a loss of income to Egypt. Egypt is an ally and provides some stability in N Africa and may stop some migration from N Africa to Europe.
Surface sea water in the Arabian Gulf is predicted to reach temperatures of 38-40⁰C in August 2040, which requires modifications to ships’ cooling systems and is too hot for most marine life.
Another concern is sea level rise. Some of UK’s overseas bases are vulnerable as is the largest naval base in the world at Norfolk, Virginia. Also if land is flooded there may be legal implications of moving boundaries.
The world is becoming drier and hotter. Volatile and unpredictable weather makes fighting more difficult so the military must prepare better with appropriate kit for heat or cold. Also the humanitarian aspect of climate change is growing, particularly after storms and flooding.
HUMAN ATTITUDE
Only 30% of the military are front line fighting troops. The other 70% support them. The military needs to reduce its emissions. It must consider what future equipment will look like for a 40 year life and what its energy source will be. By 2027 the support troops’ vehicles need to be Battery Electric with charging points. All equipment needs to be suitable for climate change.
The military needs to be aware of potential legal litigation and planning controls. One planning application for a new runway at Heathrow Airport failed because it didn’t consider whether future aircraft types would affect emissions.
Also, the military needs to recruit and retrain good people to reduce waste, achieve a circular economy and avoid stranded assets that can’t be moved. UK’s military should have three bold ambitions
1) To be a global leader in what affects national security, what to fight for and with whom. Use soft power and planning of defence, helping others in five areas: energy security, food security, water security, personal security and border security including the rise of right wing parties in Italy and Poland caused by migration. UN forecasts a billion climate change refugees by 2050 of which 10% might move out of their region.
2) Adapt bases, equipment and people to mitigate climate change by 2050
3) Become more self-sufficient and reduce emissions by using hybrid vehicles, Sustainable Aircraft Fuel and other measures.
The world is changing around us. Defence must embrace, not ignore change, take up the right lessons from others and pay more attention to the environment.
CONCLUSION – Lack of action now costs more later!
View Richard Nugee’s presentation here, on the Livery Climate Action group’s YouTube Channel.
Past Master Engineer Peter Blair-Fish MA PhD CEng FICE MEI